So the question is… Did Prigozhin do the bare minimum of a ‘coup’ to cash the Pentagons $6.2 billion then get Wagner redeployed to Belarus to strike at Kiev?
Or is this just occams razor?
If it looks like a poorly attempted coup, it probably was a poorly attempted coup..
Russia Dragging Out The War
I have asked myself why Russia has dragged this war out and why it has lasted beyond 16 months. Paul Craig Roberts repeats this on a continual, almost weekly basis.
Putin is responsible for this, because he has let a conflict continue for 16 months that should have ended in one week. But Putin wanted to avoid being labeled an aggressor and confined combat to the Russian Donbass. He got the label regardless, and created a situation of an ever-widening war that he has been fighting with a private military group who are tired of the no-win situation Putin has created by his pretense that it is a “limited military operation.”
I doubt Prigozhin intends a coup. Most likely it is a protest against the Russian military brass
https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2023/0 ... nding-war/
Russia should’ve done a shock and awe campaign and ended the war in a few weeks. Levelled Kiev to the ground. Killed Zelensky. Destroyed all Ukrainian infrastructure and caused mass refugee crisis in Europe to destabilise Europe.
On the other hand it has taken a considerable time for the Russian people to realise they could survive fine with even the harshest Western sanctions, allowed the shitLibs in Russia that want to to ‘flee West’ (where they’re treated like criminal scum even if they go there with “slava ukraini” on their lips). The cosmopolitan bourgeoisie has been put on a tight leash and the economic plans of Sergei Glazyev have gained supremacy in the Russian state. Russia’s international partners have slowly come round to the idea that Russia is fighting an existential proxy war instead of an ‘invasion of it’s poor southern neighbour’.
In fact, the concept of economic planning has gained such supremacy in the Russian state that the Kremlin is directly addressing the Stalin period as an example of economic growth.
What Was Russia’s Ultimatum To The West Prior To The War?The event was moderated by Deputy Secretary of the Civic Chamber Alexander Galushka, one of the authors of the book “Growth Crystal. To the Russian economic miracle. The main discussion questions were the abstracts of the book related to the applicability of the experience of managing the country's economy in the period from 1929 to 1955, when a record economic growth in the world was recorded.
Under conditions of even stronger Western sanctions than today, the economy without external financing grew 14 times, became the first in Europe and the second in the world, and the average annual growth rate was 13.8 percent - minus four war years. At the same time, life expectancy increased by 26 years, the population - by 46 million people, despite the Great Patriotic War, which falls in the middle of this period of rapid growth.
The meeting participants emphasized that today Russia is at the epicenter of the formation of a new world order, while answers to some questions that need to be addressed in order to form a new model of economic growth can be obtained by analyzing historical materials related to the period of phenomenal growth of our economy in 1929-1955 years.
https://www-kremlin-ru.translate.goog/e ... _hist=true
Russia’s ultimatum to the West prior to the war was rolling back NATO to it’s 1997 borders
If Russia is serious in this ultimatum then it makes a lot more sense why Russia has allowed Ukraine to become a blackhole for Western weaponry, Ukrainian manpower and foreign mercenaries. Every step of the way the West has been forced to escalate in Brinkmanship. The West has become a trap of it’s own narratives and released itself of it’s “wunder-weapons”. First there was Javelins, Saint Himars, then the Leopards, Abrams, Challengers, Depleted Uranium and now F16s.The ultimatum to Nato was a public ultimatum in which Nato would essentially be rolled back to it’s 1997 borders. The Russians demanded that Nato also not expand any further with explicit guarantees that both Georgia and Ukraine never be accepted to Nato. https://www.diplomaticpost.co.uk/index. ... ke-an-egg/
Both the West and Russia claim this conflict is existential. Whilst it was not existential for the West at the start it has now become existential. If Russia had gone ‘shock and awe’ like NATO in Yugoslavia or Iraq and then marched through the ruins to Kiev Ukraine would still have hundreds of thousands of Banderites that retreated using civilians as cover and they would still pose an existential threat to Russia that the CIA could run guns and bombs to. In much the same way Mi6 was parachuting Banderites into Ukraine in 1949-1952.
The NATO alliance would still be intact and nodoubt invigorated by the capture of Ukraine. Indeed on the surface NATO does seem invigorated. But at some point we are going to see the dramatic collapse of the Ukrainian army. Discipline is breaking down quickly. Here’s a commander throwing a grenade at his own soldiers for example. It will soon reach a point similar to Vietnam war where soldiers begin shooting their officers in the backs of their heads.
A sweeping big arrow offensive to achieve this would’ve cost Russian lives to the point that an actual mutiny (we still have a question mark over whether this is a pysop) would’ve occurred much earlier. The hundreds of thousands of Banderite’s would’ve been mobilised into a guerilla warfare demobilising the Russian army. It is better to have them being forced into 10-1 counter offensives where they have to advance over open steppe.
Pushed into what has become a disastrous counter-offensive by the White House who declared back in May
US has given Ukraine almost everything needed for counter-offensive, White House says https://news.yahoo.com/us-given-ukraine ... 00515.html
What Was Russia's Stated Goal?
Russia's stated goal was demilitarisation and de-nazification. That means killing the Ukrainian army and Banderites. A 'quick' war that Paul Craig Roberts laments Russia for not doing would not achieve that. The Banderites would put the civilians in the way of the Russian army whilst evacuating to Anglo-Saxon nations in safety. Returning when it suited them - just as they returned to Ukraine after 1991.
The only way to kill them all is a long war. The West has given them training and weapons to infuse them with confidence, only to find stepping into open steppe and Russian artillery is futile.
A 5d Chess Move?
This brings us full circle back to the Prigozhin coup?
If Prigozhin is a traitor – and didn’t do this for Pentagons $6.2 billion under Putin’s approval– then why were he and Wagner allowed into Belarus, a few hundred kilometres from Kiev?
Why did he drive up 4-8000 troops on their “march to Moscow” who could never hope to take power?
In war times dissent always comes out of the military and a military commander always thinks they know better than the ruling government. One is inclined to think of Tukhachevsky, executed in Soviet times as a traitor. The Kruschevites insisted that Tukhachevsky had never confessed yet the Russian government released his trial transcript in 2018 – showing he did in fact confess.
istmat.info/node/59108 (in Russian)
Putin must’ve been aware that some dissent by liberal cosmopolitan Russians. What better way to round up fifth columnists than see who comes out in support of his old friend, Priogzhin?
Prigozhin acts confidently because he is a member of Putin’s inner circle. I doubt that this ‘mutiny’ was spontaneous, allegedly instigated by a Russian army missile attack against Wagner troops. I suspect that Prigozhin was acting according to a plan with the tacit or even active involvement of Putin. But towards what goal?
Any military commanders considering a (genuine) palace coup will think twice. As will any politicians or significant members of the Russian state consider supporting one – not knowing if they are supporting false flag and Putin trap.
Putin’s position in the Russian state is now immeasurably strengthened.
What put’s the finger on the scale for me is Russel Texas Bentley’s telegram (who predicted the war’s start precisely – back when many communists/pro Russians were saying Russia would not go into Ukraine).
Euro news:
"All activities were planned"
From another point of view, Oge Mire, a journalist and observer of recent events in Russia, knows and speaks of a pre-planned game between Putin, Prigozhin and Lukashenko in order to find a pretext for bringing Russian troops into Belarus and close to the borders of Lithuania, Poland and western Ukraine. "First of all, with this action, Wagner is outside Ukraine and can attack Kiev and Lvov much more powerfully. Much easier than when he was in eastern Ukraine. From another point of view, the presence of Wagner in Belarus guarantees the security of Russian nuclear facilities and weapons that Putin plans to place in Belarus near the border of Poland and Lithuania in the near future.
Russian politics has always been a mystery wrapped inside an enigma. But if Russia is serious about rolling back NATO to it’s 1997 borders then Russia knew this would be a long conflict and Russia has played it masterfully in turning Ukraine into a blackhole of NATO weaponry and manpower as NATO disarms itself.
This would require understanding Ukraine was a long war... Well Putin stated in October 2022
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/10/ ... wii-a79216"Ahead is probably the most dangerous, unpredictable and at the same time important decade since the end of the Second World War," Putin told members of the annual Valdai Discussion Club, adding that the situation is "to a certain extent revolutionary."
I am convinced the old friends, Putin and Priogzhin launched this theatre for a number of reasons.
1. To flush out Russia's fifth column liberal cosmopolitan elite and strengthen the Putin led government in Russia
2. To get access to the $6.2 billion dollars the Pentagon released only a few days prior
3. To redeploy Wagnerites to Belarus where they can threaten Poland, Baltics and Lvov and Kiev.
