State pf Ukraine war

[TemperedSteel]

I read this comment on a substack of Russians the other day and thought it interesting.

I was watching a conversation between Strelkov and this disgruntled Stalinist boomer named Yuri Muhin about a year and a half ago. They seemed to agree with eachother about everything until Yuri said that the biggest priority for Patriots ought to be ending the war because the whole war is a plot to dismember Russia. Strelkov asked Yuri if he would be willing to cooperate with Navalnyites to end the war and when Yuri said yes Strelkov walked out of the studio saying he doesnt speak with Russias enemies.

After that episode I looked more into Yuri because right up until he started talking about stopping the war I was agreeing with everything he was saying (as was Strelkov) and I think the guy is sincere in what he was saying. His analysis of the Soviet Period and contemporary Russian politics is so spot on that I eventually bought one of his books he wrote many years ago and in that he explained his theory for why the Communist and Zhirinovskys LDNR exist.

Yuris theory is that the fake opposition doesn't function as just a pressure release but they serve as boogeyman to wave around in front of the West and an insurance policy for the people running Russia. That is the people running Russia tell their esteemed Western partners "take it easy on us, give a seat at the table or the commies will come back, or maybe Zhirinovsky will get access to nukes lol, we are your guys". Yuri notes how in the West no country even remotely tolerates politicians who stray outside the neo-liberal paradigm but in Russia the LDPR and Commies are allowed to actually say lots of stuff that people agree without being cracked down on as long as they do nothing in practice. This isn't like Europe where say AFD or National Front are subjugated and neutered via law fare until they don't even claim to have major disagreements with the mainstream parties besides on how many Africans to import for the quarter. Russias controlled opposition on the other hand never votes against what the Kremlin wants but their leaders would often say very based and nice things normal Russians would agree with with no consequences unlike in Europe. Zhirinovsky nostalgia is huge with Russian patriots based on how often he said exactly what they were thinking even though everyone knows he was controlled.

So Yuris theory is that the people running Russia (Putin is not a real shot caller in Yuris scheme) are traitors and Westernophiles but they arent idiots. Furthermore should Russia no longer be profitable for them they need need an exit strategy that will allow them personally to make it to the West without any serious issues. According to Yuri that would involve creating a crisis where the Commies or someone like Zhirinovsky would take the spot currently occupied by United Russia. In that case the former puppeteers in Russia who the West doesnt have much time for could become "dissidents in exile" like Khodorkovsky. Such people would be useful for their Western Partners against the scary but totally hollowed out scarecrow "Nationalist" or communist Russia. This would all be prelude to totally partitioning the country. According to Yuri the SVO was launched to either get Russias actual rulers their seat at the table or failing that to initiate the countries dismemberment as a no longer profitable operation. Putin not being an actual shot caller is expendable. Russias actual rulers would happily offer up his head if need be.

Im reminded of Serbs interview where he said Rusich has wealthy backers... Prighozhin cultivated some serious Nationalist and yeah Prighozhins actual purpose was stopping the war or engineering Wagners exit from it. Are these Nationalist unironically being led by the nose to play a role in dismembering Russia after a peace treaty worse than Brest Litovsk is signed? Personally Im still in the Strelkov fight till the bitter end camp but in retrospect maybe Yuris tin foil theories have some grains of truth to them.