The Coming Debacle In Ukraine

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The Coming Debacle In Ukraine

Post by AgentSonya » ... n-ukraine/

Having sold a war to the Western public for over a year and half this narrative is beginning to collapse.

Examining two articles shows how the Bourgeois press is beginning to prime the Western public for a complete debacle in Ukraine.

From the FT Yesterday

US officials are increasingly critical ofUkraine’s counteroffensive strategyand gloomy about its prospect of suc-cess, deepening tensions between Kyivand Washington at the most criticalpoint in the war since Russia’s full-scaleinvasion
Financial Times, 21 Aug

And National Interest who are understanding that the Americans need to start begging for peace

The Case for American-Led Peace in Ukraine
National interest

The problem is that the Western bourgeois press is they have spent over a year and a half insisting the Ukrainian army can win. Gaslighting at a national level not seen since covid. The Western press has lied every step of the way in this conflict to keep the war going as long as possible. The death toll of the Ukrainian army is a closely guarded State secret to prevent people descending on Kiev and the Western press has always insisted that it is a “state secret” whilst underestimating the war dead of Ukraine and inflating the Russians war dead by 10 fold.

But the National Interest is forced to admit

The Russian dash to Kiev in 2022 largely failed due to an over-emphasis on mechanized forces over the infantry. A Russian military that enters spring 2024 after two rounds of mobilization will no longer face this constraint. Achieving sufficient mass over an exhausted Ukrainian adversary means the possibility of breakthroughs and the return of maneuver warfare. If Russian forces can drive deep into Ukrainian territory and capture the regions Moscow has identified as its objectives, then the war ends in a significant Russian victory, and crucially one reached by force of arms alone, not a peace settlement mediated by the United States.

A Russian victory on these terms is a significant setback for the United States. The reputational damage to American competence and the NATO alliance would be colossal, as the best of NATO hardware and training has already gone into the Ukrainian military, and Russia would be able to make the claim that it stood alone against the West—and won. The Sino-Russian relationship would also strengthen. Finally, the cheap and effective weapons Russia uses to win the war, such as the Lancet, will flow to every regime opposed to American leadership around the world.

Therefore, it is imperative that the idea of a peace settlement amenable to all parties in the conflict—including Russia—takes hold and is seriously pursued in Washington. Influential American figures are already engaged in Track 1.5 diplomacy with their counterparts in Russia. These efforts should be encouraged, expanded, and form the basis for sustained engagement in peace negotiations. Only then will the United States be able to focus entirely on containing China, which is of paramount importance to American security and prosperity.

However what incentive is there for Russia to come to peace talks. Obama made the point that Russia always held escalatory dominance in Ukraine. And he was right. The Russians can continue this war for 10 years or more. Keeping it at a low level intensity conflict and the Ukraine economy a basketcase. Making Ukrainian refugees and economic migrants flood into Europe creating problems and de-stabilising European society.

In fact the National Interest in this article admits this a few paragraphs before the ones I just quoted.

The problem with the “Korea Scenario,” however, is that it assumes that the Russian leadership is desperate for a ceasefire and negotiations. There is scant evidence of this. Not only have the Russians fought the Ukrainians to a standstill in the south, but they launched their own offensive in the north, aimed at capturing the full extent of the Luhansk region, where Russian troops are steadily advancing. Russian society and the economy remain relatively stable, suggesting Prigozhin’s mutiny was indeed an aberration—and his criticism of the war always was that it wasn’t fought hard enough.

In fact, the Kremlin might be eager for victory, rather than desperate for negotiations

Russia is not on a time schedule. Ukraine will always be on Russia’s borders and will always be a top National Security issue for the Russian state regardless of what leader runs Russia. Whilst it is NATO that is on a number of timers to which it will be forced to peace. The Americans are bankrolling the entire Ukrainian government even paying their pensions whilst people in Maui are left to rot. A Trump victory next year would signal the end of the Ukraine war. Which looks increasingly likely, if they don’t manage to ‘lawfare’ Trump out of the race like a corrupt banana republic. What’s more the Biden crime families continued corruption scandals are reaching fever pitch.

The other aspect of increased ticking of the clock down for NATO is the inability to keep up with the Russian military productive might. I have been shocked at how NATO no longer has any decent military industrial capacity. The once great United States has been reduced to a financialised, service sectory economy to the point the Wall Street Journal released released an article recently on how the “merica’s Largest Tool Company Couldn’t Make a Wrench in America”. ... y-1125792f

The Military industrial Complex of NATO is geared toward profit. The budgets supplied on paper look impressive but this is spent on inflated waste and profiteering.

In the competitive environment before the companies consolidated, a shoulder-fired stinger missile cost $25,000 in 1991. With Raytheon, Assad’s former employer, now the sole supplier, it costs more than $400,000 to replace each missile sent to Ukraine. Even accounting for inflation and some improvements, that’s a seven-fold increase.

“For many of these weapons that are being sent over to Ukraine right now, there’s only one supplier. And the companies know it,” Assad said. ... 023-05-21/

Another CBS article shows how subcontractors are milking this gravy train too

When a part breaks, it’s likely to come from a subcontractor like TransDigm, which has seen its stock soar as it buys up companies the military depends on for spare parts. Founder Nick Howley has twice been called before Congress over accusations of price gouging. Shay Assad’s review team found the government “will pay” the company “$119 million” for parts that “should cost $28 million.” ... 023-05-21/

In other words the Military Industrial Complex is one long gravy train for DC insiders and loyalists. Compare this to Russia who’s military technical basis is still based of the industrial strength laid out by the Soviet Union. There is no profit motive in Russia running in their military industrial capacity. Their industrial production is setup to wage war not provide a gravy train to siphon tax payers money out to contractors and subcontractors.

What was said about Russia prior to the war was dismissive claims that Russia was a “gas station with nukes” who’s Ruble would be “rubble” after a few months of Western Sanctions. But in reality the world is watching Russian military industrial production defeat NATO’s productive capacity.

In 2021 I penned an article titled Russia Versus The West: Cracking Nato Like An Egg. In this I stated

The West has long over extended Nato. Incapable of beating barefoot jihadis in Afghanistan. Instead the Afghan war dragged on spreading continual human misery as Western mercenaries and the military industrial complex turned it into the worlds largest money laundering operation.

Yet for some reason they were shocked at the advance of Taliban retaking the entire country in a matter of weeks.

Now US has placed Russia in the position of standing up to face the West or allow them to encroach further into Russia. The bear must lash back at Nato or face Nato encroaching into its territory. Western monopolies have longed eyed Russias vast natural resources, particularly Siberia. With Bidens approval ratings lower than Trumps, Biden now needs a war to distract from his failings as the US approaches One million dead to covid and approval ratings more abysmal than Trump.

In doing so Russia will be forced to go to war in Ukraine and smash the pro-Nato Nazi puppet regime installed there. The subsequent cascading effects will destroy US empire overnight. The dollar will go into hyperinflation. Europe will freeze due to lack of gas supplies from Russia.

The West has chosen to approach Russias borders and support Nazis that celebrate holocaust collaborators like Stepan Bandera. As Putin has said “Russia has nowhere to retreat” and that “if a fight is about to happen you’d better strike first”.

From here Russia can ratchet up the pain against the West and go in a multitude of directions at a time when the US wants to be engaged in Asia. ... ke-an-egg/

The US still wants it’s war with China and as the Russian economy is showing signs of growth whilst the US and particularly Europe are falling to bits. The Telegraph that is basically a mouthpiece for the Tory gorverment penned an article recently that if you’re under fifty you should get out of Britain.

The Russians will continue to ratchet up the pain against the West and in however many years it takes Ukraine will fall into their lap like a ripe apple. It is only a matter of time for Nato’s “collossal” defeat which will be a full spectrum attack. The collapse of the US dollar, the collapse of NATO military might against Russia and the utter necessity to go to war with China.
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