https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/12/after-syria-.htmlAfter Syria
I was pondering the longe term (20+ years) consequences of the fall of Syria but have failed to come up with sensible predictions.
There are too many interests and nations involved, too many hot spots ready to explode.
But what I find most difficult to predict is the consequence of the systematic de-secularization we can see in the wider area.
Each government that falls seems to get replaced by a more religiously motivated one (see Iran, Iraq, Yemen, Libya, Israel, Syria ...).
The powers of eschatological (miss-)interpretations of various scriptures is difficult to estimate.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/12/s ... -both.htmlSyria - Winners And Losers Or Both
Syria has fallen.
It is now highly likely that the country will fall apart. Outside and inside actors will try to capture and/or control as many parts of the cadaver as each of them can.
Years of chaos and strife will follow from that.
Israel is grabbing another large amount of Syrian land. It has taken control of the Syrian city of Quneitra, along with the towns of Al-Qahtaniyah and Al-Hamidiyah in the Quneitra region. It has also advanced into the Syrian Mount Hermon and is now positioned just 30 kilometers from (and above) the Syrian capital.
It is also further demilitarizing Syria by bombing every Syria military storage site in its reach. Air defense positions and heave equipment are its primary targets. For years to come Syria, or whatever may evolve from it, will be completely defenseless against outside attacks.
Israel is for now the big winner in Syria. But with restless Jihadists now right on its border it remains to be seen for how long that will hold.
The U.S. is bombing the central desert of Syria. It claims to strike ISIS but the real target is any local (Arab) resistance which could prevent a connection between the U.S. controlled east of Syria with the Israel controlled south-west. There may well be plans to further build this connection into an Eretz Israel, a Zionist controlled state "from the river to the sea".
Turkey has had and has a big role in the attack on Syria. It is financing and controlling the 'Syrian National Army' (previously the Free Syrian Army), which it is mainly using to fight Kurdish separatists in Syria.
There are some 3 to 5 million Syrian refugees in Turkey which the wannabe-Sultan Erdogan wants, for domestic political reasons, to return to Syria. The evolving chaos will not permit that.
Turkey had nurtured and pushed the al-Qaeda derived Hayat Tahrir al-Sham to take Aleppo. It did not expect it to go any further. The fall of Syria is now becoming a problem for Turkey as the U.S. is taking control of it. Washington will try to use HTS for its own interests which are, said mildly, not necessary compatible with whatever Turkey may want to do.
A primary target for Turkey are the Kurdish insurgents within Turkey and their support from the Kurds in Syria. Organized as the Syrian Democratic Forces the Kurds are sponsored and controlled by the United States. The SDF are already fighting Erdogan's SNA and any further Turkish intrusion into Syria will be confronted by them.
The SDF, supported by the U.S. occupation of east-Syria, is in control of the major oil, gas and wheat fields in the east of the country. Anyone who wants to rule in Damascus will need access to those resources to be able to finance the state.
Despite having a $10 million award on its head HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Golani is currently played up by western media as the unifying and tolerant new leader of Syria. But his HTS is itself a coalition of hardline Jihadists from various countries. There is little left to loot in Syria and as soon as those resources run out the fighting within HTS will begin. Will al-Golani be able to control the sectarian urges of the comrades when these start to plunder the Shia and Christian shrines of Damascus?
During the last years Russia was less invested in the Assad government than it seemed. It knew that Assad had become a mostly useless partner. The Russia Mediterranean base in Khmeimim in Latakia province is its springboard into Africa. There will be U.S. pressure on any new leadership in Syria to kick the Russians out. However any new leadership in Syria, if it is smart, will want to keep the Russians in. It is never bad to have an alternative choice should one eventually need one. Russia may well stay in Latakia for years to come.
With the fall of Syria Iran has lost the major link in its axis of resistance against Israel. Its forward defenses, provided by Hizbullah in Lebanon, are now in ruins.
As the former General Wesley Clark reported about a talk he once had in the Pentagon:
"This is a memo that describes how we’re going to take out seven countries in five years, starting with Iraq, and then Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and, finishing off, Iran.”
Six of the seven countries mentioned in that famous memo have by now been thrown into chaos. Iran is -so far- the sole survivor of those plans. It will urgently have to further raise its local defenses. It is high time now for it to finally acquire real nuclear weapons.
The incoming Trump administration sees China as its major enemy. By throwing Syria (and Ukraine) into chaos the outgoing Biden administration has guaranteed that Trump will have to stay involved in the Middle East (and eastern Europe).
The massive U.S. 'Pivot to Asia' will again have to wait. This gives China more time to build its sphere of influence. It may well be the only power that has been a winner in this.
"Four Seas Strategy": Then-Syrian president Bashar Assad aimed to link the Mediterranean, Caspian, Black Sea and Persian Gulf into an energy network, positioning Syria as a key energy hub.
Arab Gas Pipeline (AGP): Designed to export Egyptian gas to Israel, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Turkiye and Europe, the AGP has faced repeated setbacks, particularly the Syrian leg from Aleppo to Kilis in Turkiye, which was disrupted by the 2011 civil war.
Iraq-Syria Oil Pipeline: Previously a transit hub for Iraqi oil to the Mediterranean, this pipeline was damaged during the 2003 Iraq war and further impacted by the 2011 Syrian civil war.
Qatar-Syria-Turkiye Pipeline: A proposed 1,500-kilometer pipeline from Qatar to Turkiye and Europe via Syria was reportedly rejected by Syria in 2009.
The fall of the Syrian government could potentially restructure gas and oil pipeline routes to Turkiye and Europe, according to some observers